IndyStar/WTHR: Obama Up in Indiana (within MOE)

As we know, Indiana could be decisive.

From the Indy Star:

Sen. Barack Obama holds a narrow lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Indiana, with the outcome of the May 6 primary likely in the hands of a large number of undecided voters, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll.

The poll showed that Obama — helped in particular by strong backing from black voters — is leading Clinton 41 percent to 38 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. But given the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, this race is either candidate’s to win or lose.

Perhaps the most surprising thing in the poll is that Obama would beat McCain in Indiana if the election were held today:

Among Hoosiers who said they would vote in the general election — a statewide sample of voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points — Obama beat McCain 49 percent to 41 percent. Clinton broke even with McCain, with both backed by 46 percent of those polled.

Though Indiana is turning purple, I don’t think for a second that Obama will carry Indiana over McCain, but it’s encouraging.

But as far as the Obama/Clinton race, this poll shows us what we all know. It’s going to be close in Indiana, Obama has a good shot to win, and Hoosier who support Obama need to get to work and work hard for the next week and a half so we can help bring this race to an end.

If you live in Indiana, canvass and call. If you don’t have the time, talk to people you know who are potential Obama supporters to persuade them and then make sure they vote.

Bill Clinton: Hillary Must Win NC to Win Nomination

Bill Clinton moves the goalposts again:

Bill Clinton said Friday in Charlotte that his wife’s presidential bid hinges in many ways on whether the New York senator wins North Carolina’s Democratic primary.

Speaking to about 4,000 at a rally at UNC Charlotte, the former president said Hillary Clinton would likely have to win the state’s May 6 primary to have any chance at winning the overall popular vote and ultimately overtaking Sen. Barack Obama as the party’s nominee.

Heh.

Rasmussen has Obama up in North Carolina by 23%.

I can only imagine how badly the feelings  the feelings of NC voters will be hurt when they learn that like MO, MS, GA, VA and many other states when they learn on May 7 that their state doesn’t count.

New IN Poll Numbers: Obama and Clinton Even

From the Indy Star:

Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are running about even in their race to win Indiana’s May 6 primary, according to a new statewide poll released Thursday.The poll commissioned by WSBT-TV in South Bend, the South Bend Tribune, WISH-TV in Indianapolis and WANE-TV in Fort Wayne shows that of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, 49 percent would vote for Clinton and 46 percent would favor Obama if the election were held today. That is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Those numbers seem a little bit more in line with the sense that I’m getting about the state. Clinton needs a win in Indiana, and it doesn’t appear that it will be easy for her.

The Clinton campaign said the poll underscores the tight race Indiana is expected to be.

“It’s going to be a hard-fought primary and, going back to what (Clinton) said several times, she is not taking any Hoosier voter for granted,” said Jonathan Swain, spokesman for Clinton’s Indiana campaign. “This is going to be won precinct by precinct.”

Obama’s campaign said the poll suggests that he is on good footing coming into Indiana but is still considered an underdog.

“Senator Clinton enjoys a lot of institutional support here from the Democratic establishment,” said Nick Kimball, spokesman for Obama’s Indiana campaign. But he said the campaign sees a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of momentum.

Basically, it seems that it may come down to GOTV, and if that’s the case, I think Obama’s money and proven ability to get people to the polls gives him the advantage, especially at a time when people seem to be realizing that Obama is the likely nominee.

Some Perspective on Potential Democratic Defectors

I admit it. If asked by a pollster if I would vote for Clinton if she were to become the Democratic nominee, I would probably say that I would not.

I think the Clintons are a toxin in the Democratic party and probably just not good for the entire country. I want them out of presidential politics for good, though I wouldn’t be opposed to Hillary serving as Senate Majority Leader. Apparently about 19% percent of Obama backers feel the same way I do,  while 28% of Clinton backers say they will not back Obama if he is the nominee.

But the truth is, when November comes and if Hillary is the Democratic nominee, I’ll probably go ahead and hold my nose to vote for her. By that time, against McCain, she’ll probably not look as bad as she does now.

Gallup has the numbers on the polling and a good perspective:

These results suggest that it may be normal for some voters to claim early on in the process — perhaps out of frustration — that they will desert their party if certain things do not happen to their liking. And it may be equally likely that they fall back into line by the time of the general election. It is worth noting that in Gallup’s historical final pre-election polls from 1992 to 2004, 10% or less of Republicans and Democrats typically vote for the other party’s presidential candidate.

Still, when almost 3 out of 10 Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain over Obama, it suggests that divisions are running deep within the Democratic Party. If the fight for the party’s nomination were to continue until the Denver convention in late August, the Democratic Party could suffer some damage as it tries to regroup for the November general election.

In short, the party will get past this one, unless, perhaps, the acrimony around this campaign stays with us through the summer.

Indiana Polling: Hoosiers More Ready for an African-American President than a Woman

Interesting.

From Inside Indiana Business:

It is a big question in this year’s Democratic presidential campaign: Is America ready for an African-American or female president? The voices and votes of Indiana residents on this issue could be critical, as Hoosiers may still have a hand in determining the Democratic presidential candidate.

Snip

An interesting finding framed the context for these results. It showed that when asked whether Obama could become president and whether Hoosiers are ready for an African-American president, conservative and liberal respondents reported similarly strong beliefs. In comparison, Clinton was favored primarily by Democrats or liberals and less by conservatives or those who categorized themselves as Republicans. Additionally, more Democrats or liberals felt that Hoosiers are ready for a female president than conservatives.

Snip

When asked whether they believed Obama, as an African American, could win the upcoming presidential election, 24 percent of the respondents said yes, and 54 percent said probably yes. In comparison, when asked whether they believed Clinton, as a female, could win the upcoming presidential election, 14 percent of the respondents said yes, and 46 percent said probably yes.

Indiana residents are divided in their belief about whether most Hoosiers are ready for an African-American president. Fifty-seven percent said yes, 39 percent said no and 4 percent don’t know.

On the other hand, 53 percent of respondents believe most Hoosiers are ready for a female president, compared to 44 percent who say Hoosiers are not ready and 4 percent who don’t know.

I’m not sure what any of this means in terms of Obama’s chances in Indiana. The only other poll I’ve seen on the issue had Obama up by 15%, but that was conducted in mid-February, so the numbers may have changed.

My major question about this poll is how much race and gender really play into the question of whether Barack or Hillary could win a presidential election. The generic African-American beats the generic woman 57% to 53%, but my guess is those numbers are based more the individuals running than on race or gender. If Liddy Dole were running against Obama, I can guarantee that the numbers who think that a woman could or probably could win would far surpass Obama’s.

Also, I think it bodes well for Obama in the general (assuming he is the nominee) that he seems to be liked across-the-board by liberals and conservatives while views of Hillary are more polarized. It’s not that I think Obama might win Indiana, but if he can at least make it competitive, McCain might actually have to spend some resources in the Hoosier state that might otherwise be put to use in real swing states.

But really, what I’d really like to know is why they didn’t just simply ask Democrats for whom they plan to vote. It seems that kind of polling would be more politically meaningful.

25% of Hillary Supporters Would Vote for McCain if Obama is Nominee?

From Salon.com’s War Room:

 Interesting result from a recent survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press: If their favored candidate is not the Democratic nominee, a quarter of Hillary Clinton’s primary supporters would defect and vote for John McCain in November, while only 10 percent of Barack Obama’s supporters would do the same.

It’s funny to read this after all the blustering that Obama voters were disloyal Democrats who would bolt the party if Clinton were the nominee. As I recall, Dean supporters were accused of the same such rubbish four years ago and ended up becoming some of Kerry’s most fierce and active supporters.

What I suspect the polling indicates is sour grapes more than anything. Hillary is behind now, and many of her supporters are bitter about it, so they’re saying there’s no way that they will vote for Obama if he’s the nominee. In a few months when the emotions are calmer, and if Obama is the nominee, chances are the vast majority of that 25% will end up voting for Obama.

More from the Salon piece:

Here’s another interesting thing — the Clinton campaign is promoting this stat, both in an e-mail from spokesman Phil Singer and in an item on its “Delegate Hub” Web site.

Yes, the Clinton campaign is using that data as a reason that Democrats should support Hillary. The funny thing about that is that the Pew poll they cite has Obama beating McCain by a margin that is 2 points greater than Clinton’s margin over McCain.