Historians: McCain is Doomed

Since Obama wrapped up the nomination, I’ve been feeling better about his chances, despite the protests of the Clinton dead-enders.

I’m glad to see that my optimism is well-founded, according to some historians:

One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

More:

“It is one of the worst political environments for the party in power since World War II,” added Alan Abramowitz, a professor of public opinion and the presidency at Emory University. His forecasting model — which factors in gross domestic product, whether a party has completed two terms in the White House and net presidential approval rating — gives McCain about the same odds as Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and Carter in 1980 — both of whom were handily defeated in elections that returned the presidency to the previously out-of-power party. “It would be a pretty stunning upset if McCain won,” Abramowitz said.

What’s more, Republicans have held the presidency for all but 12 years since the South became solidly Republican in the realignment of 1968 — which is among the longest runs with one party dominating in American history. “These things go in cycles,” said presidential historian Robert Dallek, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. “The public gets tired of one approach to politics. There is always a measure of optimism in this country, so they turn to the other party.”

I’m not breaking out the champagne just, yet, but things are looking damn good, especially since Obama is showing that he’s not afraid to fight back against GOP smears.

We are going to do this.

McCain Speaks

Sorry, it’s a cheap shot, but it’s all I could think of while watching John McCain’s speech this evening.

Elitism in Politics

Heh.

Tom Tomorrow nails it:

Maybe We’re Just too Hard on Ourselves

From the BBC’s Justin Webb’s blog on this year’s presidential race:

So the Kennedy magic is sprinkled on the senator from Illinois. Thinking about Barack Obama and watching him at work in the last few days, I find myself wondering if he and the other candidates (Republicans as well), even the Clintons in their way, have already achieved some of the change they desire, some of the bright new start they promise.

Many Americans hope that this election will alter worldwide perceptions of their nation – many foreigners, friends of America put off by the Bush years, hope the same thing. Wait till January 2009 they say: help is at hand. But look at the vigour of the process this year, the unique openness, the stunning setbacks and comebacks, the media being caught out so badly in New Hampshire, the Obama rallies, Bill’s bulging eyes, Huckabee’s fascinating recalibration of the evangelical message from hellfire soon to milk and honey now (and no income tax to boot) etc etc etc.

While I think some of Webb’s piece on the US elections can be attributed, perhaps, to a Brit’s romantic view of American democracy, he has a point.

We might bitch about our candidates to no end. Most likely, we will end up voting for a lesser evil rather than a greater good, but seems that the process so far has done a lot to reengage Americans in the political process. As evidenced by record turnout (on the Democratic side) so far in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Perhaps Obama’s showings have been a result of the elusive “youth vote” that finally materialized in a way it never did for Howard Dean or other candidates who were dependent upon first-time voters.

So far, even with all of its nastiness, the campaign is shaping up to be the most interesting one in my lifetime as it looks likely that either party might have a convention in which the nominee is chosen.

With the writers’ strike, this election has turned into a telenovela for many Americans, and for that reason, I don’t know if I could be more pleased.