Poll: Obama Leads in Indiana; Carson Up in IN’s 7th

From the Howey-Gauge poll of Indiana voters:

Obama had a 40-25 percent lead over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton in the statewide Democratic May 6 primary.


The Obama-Clinton poll segment of the poll was the first one conducted on the bitterly contested presidential race that could find Indiana front stage center leading into the May 6 primary. Obama had huge leads among younger voters (42-16 percent), males (40-26 percent), females (39-23 percent), African-Americans (68-3 percent) and white voters (34-30 percent). “White females are the only demographic breakdown in which Hillary Clinton leads,” said Davis, “and that is a narrow 31-29 percent.”

I’ve thought for a while that if the primaries are still contested when Indiana votes in May that Obama would have an outstanding chance of winning in this state.In a state as conservative as Indiana, liberals endured years of hearing from their families and friends how horrible the Clintons were and I think that probably had an effect on some level.

Perhaps more importantly, since Obama is from neighboring Illinois, there might be some regional favoritism going on, especially considering that densely-populated Northwest Indiana relies on Chicago media markets.

The MOE in the poll was 4.5%.

In news from the IN 7th special election, it appears that Julia Caron’s grandson Andre may be headed toward a win:

Carson held a 54-36 percent lead over State Rep. John Elrod heading into the March 11 special election.

I’m a little surprised that Andre is polling over 50% against Elrod, but since I moved out of that district a couple of years ago, I have less of a feel for what’s going on there as I once did.

In news that is not as positive for Democrats, Governor Daniels appears to lead by a large margin over his likely Democratic rivals:

In the Indiana governor’s race, while Gov. Daniels’ re-elect number was a relatively low 41 percent, he had twin 23-percent leads over Democrats Jim Schellinger (54-31 percent) and JIll Long Thompson (56-33 percent). The governor’s head-to-head numbers were largely driven by 38 percent of Hoosiers saying taxes were the top issues. Any single issue over 30 percent is considered “a hot issue,” said Howey-Gauge Pollster Michael Davis, president of Gauge Market Research. “Gov. Daniels is finding traction on the top three issues: taxes, jobs and education.”

No real surprise there, but given Daniels’ lack of popularity among Democrats and Republicans and the low name recognition of Jim Schellinger and Jill Long-Thompson and the fact that few are paying attention to that race yet, those numbers will likely change.


One response to “Poll: Obama Leads in Indiana; Carson Up in IN’s 7th

  1. Pingback: Washington Post: Clinton, Obama are Even in Indiana « Blog de Ford

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