Finally, some new data on Indiana’s numbers:
Clinton 9 Atop Obama, 5 Weeks to Indiana Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/01/08, 5 weeks until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 52% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Obama leads 3:2 among the youngest voters. Clinton leads 2:1 among the oldest voters. Clinton leads by 21 points among whites. Obama leads by 58 points among blacks. Obama leads in greater Indianapolis. Clinton leads in Northern, Central and Southern Indiana. Clinton leads by 2 among men and by 17 among women. Among voters focused on Iraq, the candidates tie. Among voters focused on the Economy, Clinton leads by 14. Among voters focused on health care, Clinton leads by 10. Clinton leads by 12 among those who describe themselves as Democrats. Republicans and Independents are technically eligible to vote in Indiana’s ‘open’ primary. Obama leads by 26 points among Independents. Clinton leads by 21 among Republicans. Some in talk radio have urged Republicans to vote for Clinton in states where laws permit Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries. It is unclear to what extent this is happening in Indiana. Without the Republican voters, Clinton would still lead, though by 7 instead of 9.
This contradicts the Howey poll from February, but perhaps it’s to be expected after several weeks of Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea making multiple visits to the state vs. Obama’s one visit.
Perhaps the most important numbers are those who said they could change their minds: 45% of Clinton voters vs. 41% of Obama voters. It sounds like the support of both candidates could be stronger. Also the African-American numbers seem a little low for Obama.
Despite these numbers, I’ll stick to my original prediction of an Obama win in the state, given the weak support of both candidates and Obama’s history as a strong finsher.