From the Indy Star:
Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are running about even in their race to win Indiana’s May 6 primary, according to a new statewide poll released Thursday.The poll commissioned by WSBT-TV in South Bend, the South Bend Tribune, WISH-TV in Indianapolis and WANE-TV in Fort Wayne shows that of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, 49 percent would vote for Clinton and 46 percent would favor Obama if the election were held today. That is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Those numbers seem a little bit more in line with the sense that I’m getting about the state. Clinton needs a win in Indiana, and it doesn’t appear that it will be easy for her.
The Clinton campaign said the poll underscores the tight race Indiana is expected to be.
“It’s going to be a hard-fought primary and, going back to what (Clinton) said several times, she is not taking any Hoosier voter for granted,” said Jonathan Swain, spokesman for Clinton’s Indiana campaign. “This is going to be won precinct by precinct.”
Obama’s campaign said the poll suggests that he is on good footing coming into Indiana but is still considered an underdog.
“Senator Clinton enjoys a lot of institutional support here from the Democratic establishment,” said Nick Kimball, spokesman for Obama’s Indiana campaign. But he said the campaign sees a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of momentum.
Basically, it seems that it may come down to GOTV, and if that’s the case, I think Obama’s money and proven ability to get people to the polls gives him the advantage, especially at a time when people seem to be realizing that Obama is the likely nominee.