The Obama Coaliation

The Clinton people are working off of the electoral map that we’ve seen since 2000. Some states are blue. Others are red, and Democrats have to fight like hell to pick up a swing state, or two.

I think this cycle is going to be different.

Obama may well lose Ohio and Florida. That’s OK, as Kerry didn’t win either state and was very close to being elected.

But, it appears that Obama will have a great chance at picking up a few southern states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia, thanks, in part to a heavy African-American turnout.

Young voters will also play a big role in Obama’s election, much as they did in his nomination.

… voters over 45 have decreased as a share of the electorate by 10 points compared to 2004, and that voters over 65 have decreased by over 20 percent. In a state-by-state analysis of twenty-three contests, he found that the over-45 and over-65 votes decreased in 21 states.

Compare this to the 18-29 year old vote, which increased in all twenty-three states, and increased as a share of the overall electorate by more than 50 percent.

Clearly, there’s been no comparable “senior surge.”The importance of the largely Obama-inspired youth surge for the future of the political landscape cannot be downplayed.

Obama has been able to do what other insurgent Democratic candidates we incapable of doing. He’s actually getting new voters to the polls. Bradley and Dean were both counting on new voters, they they both failed where Obama has succeeded.

So in the fall, look for Obama to win some states where Democrats usually don’t win: New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia. Any one of those plus the Kerry states will put Obama over the top.

Younger voters will help get us over 270 electoral votes as will an historic African-American turnout. And pursuing and winning back Clinton Democrats, some rural voters and independents will help Obama win in a landslide.

We can and we will.

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