Historians: McCain is Doomed

Since Obama wrapped up the nomination, I’ve been feeling better about his chances, despite the protests of the Clinton dead-enders.

I’m glad to see that my optimism is well-founded, according to some historians:

One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.


“It is one of the worst political environments for the party in power since World War II,” added Alan Abramowitz, a professor of public opinion and the presidency at Emory University. His forecasting model — which factors in gross domestic product, whether a party has completed two terms in the White House and net presidential approval rating — gives McCain about the same odds as Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and Carter in 1980 — both of whom were handily defeated in elections that returned the presidency to the previously out-of-power party. “It would be a pretty stunning upset if McCain won,” Abramowitz said.

What’s more, Republicans have held the presidency for all but 12 years since the South became solidly Republican in the realignment of 1968 — which is among the longest runs with one party dominating in American history. “These things go in cycles,” said presidential historian Robert Dallek, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. “The public gets tired of one approach to politics. There is always a measure of optimism in this country, so they turn to the other party.”

I’m not breaking out the champagne just, yet, but things are looking damn good, especially since Obama is showing that he’s not afraid to fight back against GOP smears.

We are going to do this.


4 responses to “Historians: McCain is Doomed

  1. I have no fear, nor doubt that Barack Obama will be the next President of The United States. He will bring change and change American history.

  2. A thing I found interesting while in FL: My mother-in-law doesn’t like Obama – no surprise there. Asked if he was a Muslim or not. Oy! But she said she didn’t think McCain would get in. Now, she’s no political junkie or even well informed, but she clearly isn’t seeing a groundswell of support for McCain among the set that uses golf carts for their basic transportation.

  3. Pete, I hope so.

  4. Zen, hmm. Interesting. I’m glad to hear that as it bodes well for Obama.

    The GOP needs to work hard to get its base to the polls. We’re expanding our base, and Obama has shown that he has the ability to get new voters to the polls.

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